So 57.7 per cent of Newfoundlanders and Labradorians voted in this years election.
That tells us quite a bit. 42 per cent of us are not voting. This at a time of "New Energy" - quite a joke if it was funny.
The Premier managed to get 1/3 of the population to vote for her and under our system - that works to form government.
It was 73 per cent in 2003 and dropped to 60 per cent in 2007 and now 58 per cent.
This is not an energized population and all parties are to blame.
Further the PC's had 70 per cent of the popular vote in 2007 up from 59 per cent in 2003 and in 2011 dropped down to lowest levels during this time to 56 per cent.
So not only did the PC's lose significant popular vote from 2007 but additionally the number of eligible voters - who actually voted went down.
So Madame Premier you have 1/3 of us on your "New Energy".
Now let's talk about notable exceptions.
The two I am most familiar with are the two where pharmacy owners tackled Cabinet Ministers.
Todd Squires - Liberal - in Placentia - St. Mary's that district's voter turnout was 68.55%
Wayne Morris - Liberal - in Grand Falls-Windsor - Buchans that district's was 65.35%
Todd Squires actually raised the Liberal vote by 1000 and Wayne Morris by 1300 - this demonstration of both increased turnout plus significant growth says that new faces and quality candidates do make a difference and is what it's going to take to rebuild our democracy.
These two gentlemen accomplished this in only three short weeks.
Continuing on with the polls - and the media that embraced them. They were wrong. The MQO inaccuracies were significant and certainly played a role in voter disgust and disinterest. Elections are about people not companies - particularly polling companies using "innovative" techniques.
The Liberal Party at 13% that MQO predicted a just over a week before an election - was obviously damaging and did not represent - within a margin of error - even though such a margin of error should not have even been used for an "opt-in" poll.
The Liberals have about 20 per cent support which meant they lost about 2 points since the last election.
The NDP about 24 per cent support up 16 points since the last election.
The PC's about 56 per cent support down from 70 per cent meaning they have lost 14 points since last election.
The NDP gained 4 seats - the Liberals gained 2 - and the PC's lost 6 seats.
So the pollsters and the media could honestly have said - the Liberal vote and support is stagnant overall - with major shifts downward on the Avalon and shifts upward in about 25 per cent of districts.
They could have said the NDP vote was growing substantially in the Avalon and making gains with shifting Liberal vote and some PC drain.
The only support collapsing is the PC support. The fact they hung on to government is one thing - but 1/3 supporting this Premier is quite another.
The polls were wrong and the media exasperated the error. This does not help democracy. The media will take no responsibility as one important tenet of our democracy. The media will get as annoyed as any PC hack when anybody dares critique their work.
Now let's look at some Districts
Baie Verte - Springdale
2007
4509 cast votes out of 8083 eligible to vote 55.78%
Popular vote - 18 per cent Liberal 7 per cent NDP 75 per cent PC
2011
4836 cast votes out of 8067 eligible to vote 59.95%
Popular Vote - 38 per cent Liberal 9 per cent NDP 53 per cent PC
Clearly this represents significant Liberal gain - a new face, quality candidate caused improved results in voter turnout and clearly the PC vote collapsed from the 2007 numbers.
Bay of Islands
2007
5464 cast votes out of 7439 eligible to vote 73.45%
Popular Vote - 46 percent Liberal 2 per cent NDP 52 per cent PC
2011
5388 cast votes out of 7668 eligible to vote 70.27%
Popular Vote - 51 per cent Liberal 12 percent NDP 37 per cent PC
Clearly this represents the return of the Liberal vote, significant gains by the NDP and a collapse of the PC vote. The NDP gains were from traditional PC vote.
Bonavista North
2007
4295 cast votes out of 7258 eligible to vote 59.2%
Popular Vote - 30 per cent Liberal 2 per cent NDP 68 per cent PC
2011
3708 cast votes out of 6956 eligible to vote 53.3%
Popular Vote - 41 per cent Liberal 13 per cent NDP 46 per cent PC
Sadly the worst of these numbers is the loss of population. However one can clearly see the collapse of the PC vote, the significant recovery of the Liberal vote and I would say on this one; an increase in NDP vote due in part to inaccurate polls. This served the Tories to eliminate this loss of a seat. The polls did not represent this district did they? The return of the Liberal base can once again be attributed to a quality candidate and new face.
St. Barbe
2007
4247 cast votes out of 7340 eligible to vote 57.9%
Popular Vote - 37 per cent Liberal 4 per cent NDP 59 per cent PC
2011
4031 cast votes out of 7064 eligible to vote 57.1%
Popular Vote - 45 per cent Liberal 11 per cent NDP 44 per cent PC
The collapse of the PC vote here is obvious and is another area losing population and youth. There was a virtual split between the Liberals and the NDP with the gain. This is yet another example of how the pollsters did nothing to reflect this area of the province.
Torngat Mountains
2007
1480 cast votes out of 2079 eligible to vote 71.2%
Popular Vote - 5 per cent Labrador Party 42 per cent Liberal 53 per cent PC
2011
1516 cast votes out of 2130 eligible to vote 71.2%
Popular Vote - 49 per cent Liberal 12 per cent NDP 39 per cent PC
Once again the only vote that collapsed was the PC vote. This contrary to all polling and media pundits.
Now let's turn to St. John's and see what happened to the vote.
St. John's Centre
2007
4382 cast votes out of 7569 eligible to vote 57.9%
Popular Vote - 9 per cent Liberal 15 per cent NDP 76 per cent PC
2011
4719 cast votes out of 7846 eligible to vote 60.1%
Popular Vote - 2 per cent Liberal 55 per cent NDP 43 per cent PC
Clearly the vote that collapsed here was the Tory vote a 43.4% collapse. The Liberals were not in the park in 2007 and with the polling and media siege of democracy many Libs stayed home or switched to the NDP to take out Shawn Skinner.
Signal Hill - Quidi Vidi
2007
5371 cast votes out of 7517 eligible to vote 71.5%
Popular Vote - 3 per cent Liberal 57 per cent NDP 40 per cent PC
2011
4962 cast votes out of 8137 eligible to vote 61%
Popular Vote - 4 per cent Liberal 65 per cent NDP 31 per cent PC
Wow the Liberal vote actually went up - but the vote that collapsed was clearly the PC vote. Further the voter turnout dropped significantly. A 22.5% collapse for the Tories - with a star candidate.
As the weeks go on I will show the results in more of the ridings - particularly as it relates to the MQO polls and the media spin of those polls.
How about this:
1. The Tories went down in votes in 42 ridings,
2. 15 of those 42 ridings the losses exceeded 1000 votes,
3. Meanwhile the Liberals increased votes in 17 ridings while decreasing in only 9 districts off the Avalon.
The medias' coverage of the inaccurate polls and the spin of the collapsing Liberal vote is a myth. While the Liberals did lose votes in the St. John's Metro area - there was not much there to start with. The polls and the media coverage did - in my assessment cause losses for the Liberals. It also artificially and I would suggest temporarily cause inflated NDP vote outside St. John's Metro - with the exception of a couple of unionized towns.
The coverage by the media was at best reckless and at worst willingly partisan. It was not pro-government - it was anti-liberal and it should be investigated.
I have kept copies of the media headlines and predictions during this election and I will roll those out with commentary over the coming weeks.
Further I will post the latest response from MQO and I await still information from CRA on its poll.
As Sue's blog pointed out on October 3rd a full week before the election - the MQO polls were severely flawed, inaccurate and misleading. Now this past weekend please note that Don Mills of Corporate Research made essentially the same points as was made in this blog on October 3rd.
What a disgrace for all hands - and as for our government - the new energy did not materialize as only 30% of the voting population supported the Dunderdale team and the voter turnout decreased as only 58% of our people voted.
Many I'm sure said - why bother to even support a process which has left true democracy in the dust.
