Congratulations are in order for Ontario - for once again dictating the outcome of the federal election. Harper will be there for our biggest "greatest" province.
There may now be hope for the federal Liberals - if - they clean house at the executive and backroom level. Canada's "heartland" will set the agenda for the upcoming parliament and have rewarded Harper for the massive corporate bailouts in the auto and associate industries.
Irving and companies will also be a big winner in New Brunswick.
Now that the NDP is an essentially Quebec and Ontario based party 58 and 22 seats respectively close to 80% of their seat count with over 50% out of Quebec - what and who will they represent? Further the NDP had more of a say in the minority than they have in a Harper majority.
Now that Canada has sent a message to the Liberals to clean-up - they have done so by electing a fellow who has shown complete disregard for the truth, parliament, and our democracy. Harper has his majority and it is going to be real tough on the Progressive Conservatives in the party.
The Bloc is temporarily down - while Quebec takes a break from a nationalist party in Ottawa - but may very well elect a sovereignist party provincially. This is just another Quebec change-up.
The Conservatives are nasty and they will - without humility - rub this victory into the faces of Canadians who believe that moderate not extreme is Canada. This is a very clear example for Nova Scotia, New Brunswick, and Newfoundland and Labrador - that we really don't matter much in this system.
We witnessed a taste with Bev Oda - and her leaning respecting funding and pro-choice ideology. More interesting is her decisive win last night - rewarding her despicable behavior. Ontarians in her riding have redefined public service and the value of honesty. What did Oda have to say?
“Those who know me know I would never lie or mislead,” This is unbelievable!
In Newfoundland - we absolutely did the right thing and showed extreme courage by not electing one Conservative on the Island. Despite the on the ground boots of most all Dunderdale's Cabinet - they lost. We actually said to those who betrayed this province - we don't want you. Sullivan, Ottenheimer, Manning and fibre-optic Taylor were defeated - in most cases soundly.
In Labrador I can take some solace in knowing that the Big Land did what it wanted to do and not what our Island suggested they do. They have made a decision and it was their own. That is also the case with the Lower Churchill - this time it will not be shoved down their throats - rather they and they alone will determine what happens to this great resource. Further this time - they will sit in Cabinet at the federal level - not representatives from the Island. It is also clear that Labrador believes that Harper will live up to his promises for the base and the loan guarantee.
The deal on the Lower Churchill is up to them. If they wish to export - do so - and they can even make us pay for it. After all power leaves their place and heads to other jurisdictions - and they are left with royalties for the aboriginal peoples (or some of them) and a handful of jobs after construction - it will not be our fault as it was with the Upper Churchill.
Peter Penashue has a great deal of responsibility resting on his shoulders and good luck to him. I hope he brings to Labrador what Labradorians want. I hope he delivers in spades for his people and uses his voice to eliminate the long-standing social problems. For now they can choose their destiny - and the direction is all theirs. They can stand proud and make decisions that are good for them - eliminating the Island and most non-aboriginal influence. They can further build corporate partnerships between aboriginal companies and other Labrador based operators. They can take control of tenders and dictate how many jobs will be kept in Labrador and how many will leave. They can control the route of the hydro power resource and determine if they want industrial development at all - or prefer to go for royalties only. I have fought for the equal rights of Labradorians as an Islander for most of my adult life - and I have now experienced closure in that regard. Presumably Dunderdale will have to answer to Labrador and if the deals are not already done - will have to be done with the aboriginal peoples and corporate Labrador. Labrador now has control of its destiny and that is a good thing.
From a provincial Progressive Conservative point of view - there are many significant developments on the Island. The votes were mainly Liberal and NDP and both rural and urban voters have said no to Kathy Dunderdale and her team of Cabinet Ministers. We know what happened when Danny said ABC - the province listened. When Kathy Dunderdale said ABC is over and now we need to vote Conservative - the province did not listen. The PC urban vote did not recover and did not show well in other rural communities - with the exception of perhaps Felix Collins and Keith Hutchings. The federal election of 2006 saw almost 43% popular vote for the Conservatives. The ABC of 2008 demonstrated a complete collapse of that vote to 17% and now that ABC was called off by Premier Dunderdale the vote climbed to only 28%. The urban PC vote stronghold has not regained anywhere near the reliability needed to guarantee the almost always guaranteed vote for the PC's in St. John's and surrounding communities.
Let's look at the Avalon Peninsula - as it relates to influence by the current Premier Kathy Dunderdale versus the influence under Danny Williams. Same provincial layout - with only 2 opposition members in a bastion of Blue including a significant number of the Cabinet.
2006 When Danny got promises from Harper on equalization, Five Wing Goose, and custodial management.
Loyola Hearn enjoyed 44.6% of the popular vote.
Fabian Manning enjoyed 51.5% of the popular vote.
Norm Doyle enjoyed 46.5% of the popular vote.
2008 When Danny Williams declared ABC most all PC MHA's campaigned for Liberals or NDP.
St. John's South/Mount Pearl District (formerly Hearn, candidate Merv Wiseman) dropped to 12.6% of the popular vote.
St. John's East (formerly Doyle, candidate Craig Wescott) dropped to 9.3% of the popular vote.
Avalon District (Manning) dropped to 35.2% of the popular vote.
2011 When Kathy Dunderdale declared ABC over and has all but one PC MHA campaigning for Conservatives.
St. John's South/Mount Pearl District only recovers to 22.8% of the popular vote.
Avalon District only recovers to 40% of the popular vote.
St. John's East District only recovers to 20.9% of the popular vote.
Without a doubt the vast majority of the people continue to support Danny Willams position on Stephen Harper and the majority reject Kathy Dunderdale's new relationship with Stephen Harper. This despite - what can only be called strong provincial MHA's Caucus and Cabinet out in force as never before for federal Conservative candidates.
Further the Conservative candidates in St. John's East and St. John's South/Mount Pearl in the 2008 election, Craig Wescott and Merv Wiseman respectively were arguably much weaker candidates than the "star" candidates of 2011 in Loyola Sullivan and Jerry Byrne. One might speculate that the candidates themselves brought the difference to the table versus any recommendation by Dunderdale. In Manning's case where he was the constant he went down 16 points during ABC and only recovered 5 points last night. That we can write off to PC's feeling it was okay to vote at all.
This was not a good night for Kathy Dunderdale despite the tremendous victory for her friend - and colleague Stephen Harper.
The October election remains up for grabs and in many critical seats. The only thing holding back a resurgence for the provincial Liberals is the party itself. They should be able to make great gains in October as may well a few more NDP seats on the strength of Layton and Harris. (depends on how NDP policy impacts NL)
If the Liberals do some cleaning and add some star candidates of their own - they may very well cause Dunderdale and company real problems. After the turnaround of PC MHA's back to Harper which was seen by the majority of Newfoundlanders and Labradorians as disingenuous and opportunistic - seats won on Danny's coat-tails will be vulnerable.
My overall feelings are that Canada was crushed by the Ontario not Orange wave and that never bodes well for Atlantic Canada. Further Canadians have absolutely decided with the exception of Newfoundland, Nova Scotia, PEI, Quebec and parts of British Columbia that lying is okay, contempt of Parliament is dandy, and that the Elections Act is not anything relevant. Let's see if the right wing extremeists get the upper hand this time. Will Harper moderate? I don't believe a word he says - so my guess is he will not. You know when Preston Manning is delighted - we moderate people should be very concerned.
A great night for Newfoundland as we told Harper - you cannot lie to our people. Labrador - time will tell - if the Big Land gets what it wants I am happy for them. If it does not - the Island - for once will not be responsible.
1 comment:
Ontario lost big. I'm in Oda's riding. The liberal here ran a solid campaign. He was the most eloquent on Cross-Country check-up, Oda didn't even show. He came 3rd due to Orange Crush. NDP candidate had no campaign offices, no literature, no scrutineers or runners @ the polls where I was. Oda had 2x the votes. She misled in her campaign lit, flogging the tax credits that won't happen until the deficit (oops that wasn't mentioned). It's a sad day for Durham. Humes' slogan was "Durham deserves better". I fear Durham will instead get what it deserves. Awordgirl66
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