George Murphy is leaving politics - our loss - and hopefully his gain.
When I think of our democratic system and the kind of people it should attract - George is the kind of person that comes to mind.
George spent years advising the people on gas and oil prices - for free. He felt it was something that he could do to assist people to reduce or control their living expenses.
George would also participate in talk shows and showed a genuine interest in public service through the political process.
The family guy who loves his kids sat in the House and fought for many things common to most Newfoundlanders and Labradorians. He was and is of the people and for the people. He was humble in his service to the public and felt real privilege at the opportunity to serve.
I found George to be a respectful and considerate individual who also worked well with others and enjoyed listening and learning. He would make a great student should he decide to reach for new academic goals.
Although a Townie - George had no problem relating to rural communities and the beautiful Labrador. I did not agree with all decisions - most particularly support of the Muskrat Falls deal. He did however on balance provide good service to the people and was honourable during his tenure.
George leaves without a pension - and in many ways that's too bad. Some of the nodding head career politicians in the House of Assembly who will receive a pension - deserve it far less than Mr. Murphy.
I don't want to diminish this post on George - but I would be remiss if I didn't add that - George is not the one who should be retiring. Lorraine Michael -"me and my party"- continues to come across as entitled. I do wonder why she chose not to discuss with George the new district and encourage him to take the torch and carry forward.
I believe the provincial NDP momentum just took a hit for two reasons. One is that George is leaving - the other is that Lorraine is staying.
Being able to relate to the majority of people you represent while willing to learn to relate to the rest is a characteristic of George Murphy. In my opinion the exact opposite is true of Lorraine Michael.
I hope to see George back in some public capacity - but in the meantime - I wish him all happiness and success in private life.
See you sometime - out and about.
George's Gas and Oil Blog site PRESS HERE
Showing posts with label 2015. Show all posts
Showing posts with label 2015. Show all posts
Tuesday, June 23, 2015
Wednesday, December 04, 2013
The CRA Poll will be 2015 Result
The latest CRA poll - I believe - will end up representing the election result in 2015.
The Tories have come in the same as last poll when you allow for percentage of error.
The NDP have collapsed and those left of centre swing Liberal/NDP have moved back to their Liberal base.
This is all of course premised on the Liberal Opposition not doing anything so outrageous (as happened with the NDP) as to eliminate themselves. As I have posted before - Dwight Ball's style of leadership is build not burn bridges and his thoughtful approach to policy is inclusive and open not exclusive and secret.
Back to the numbers:
1. The Liberals 52% is representative of the 30% or so solid Liberal support. 15% recaptured from the left leaning Liberals who had parked themselves tentatively with the NDP and 7% of centre Tories who swing based on the mood of the electorate and the current leadership of the Liberal Party.
2. The Tories are currently sitting with their solid PC base and not much else.
3. The NDP are likely to drop a couple of more points yet as they return to their solid base only - with that support going to the Liberals.
4. The Tories have shown they are unable to spend their way out this time and despite exorbitant amounts of warm and fuzzy Muskrat advertising - the population is not convinced that this project is good for Newfoundland and Labrador.
5. There will be a couple of more points coming to the Liberals as the sports fan like undecided - go out and vote for the winning team.
The Liberals chose the best leader at the best time. Dwight Ball will reinvigorate the party, rebuild party coffers, gain business support, promote district association development, unite right and left with solid economic planning, respect and include government employees, engage and involve the municipalities, be proactive on housing, health, education, and seniors issues, attract new industrial interests while maintaining and growing local small business. Ball will also be able to attract quality candidates including some of his leadership rivals. He is a quintessential Liberal.
This does not mean there will not be challenges over the coming 18 months. Ross Reid will try to direct a comeback for the Tories through outrageous spending, brainwashing levels of Tory self-promotion and advertising, and sometime in the New Year present a new potential leader. If the PC's cannot gain significantly by the next CRA poll result - the Tories will be in rebuild for 2019 mode.
Now let's talk about district predictions.
Here is my list of retirees (either before or at the dropping of the 2015 writ):
Felix Collins, Paul Davis, Kathy Dunderdale, Clayton Forsey, Tom Hedderson, Ray Hunter, Clyde Jackman, Charlene Johnson, Tom Marshall, Kevin O'Brien, Joan Shea, Susan Sullivan, Ross Wiseman.
Here is my list of potential floor crossers:
Dave Brazil, Sandy Collins, Tony Cornect, and Keith Russell
Those remaining may run again but only the following has a chance of retaining their seats:
Terry French, Keith Hutchings, Steve Kent, and John Dinn
This is what makes the next prediction very interesting.
I believe that Darin King thinks he is a leader in waiting and I believe that Hutchings and French will be his team of support. The problem is - I believe that - Darin King will lose his seat.
Dwight Ball has made it this far without the team of 10 establishment interests from both the Liberal and PC parties - if he keeps this approach - he will be a people's leader able to do the real job of a Premier.
As for the 2 independents - Mitchelmore and Kirby - I can see Kirby being comfortable under a Dwight Ball Liberal Opposition and Government - however Mitchelmore presents more as an opportunist who is a Tory one day and an NDPer the next. If he does not go Liberal he will - I predict - lose his seat.
The Tories have come in the same as last poll when you allow for percentage of error.
The NDP have collapsed and those left of centre swing Liberal/NDP have moved back to their Liberal base.
This is all of course premised on the Liberal Opposition not doing anything so outrageous (as happened with the NDP) as to eliminate themselves. As I have posted before - Dwight Ball's style of leadership is build not burn bridges and his thoughtful approach to policy is inclusive and open not exclusive and secret.
Back to the numbers:
1. The Liberals 52% is representative of the 30% or so solid Liberal support. 15% recaptured from the left leaning Liberals who had parked themselves tentatively with the NDP and 7% of centre Tories who swing based on the mood of the electorate and the current leadership of the Liberal Party.
2. The Tories are currently sitting with their solid PC base and not much else.
3. The NDP are likely to drop a couple of more points yet as they return to their solid base only - with that support going to the Liberals.
4. The Tories have shown they are unable to spend their way out this time and despite exorbitant amounts of warm and fuzzy Muskrat advertising - the population is not convinced that this project is good for Newfoundland and Labrador.
5. There will be a couple of more points coming to the Liberals as the sports fan like undecided - go out and vote for the winning team.
The Liberals chose the best leader at the best time. Dwight Ball will reinvigorate the party, rebuild party coffers, gain business support, promote district association development, unite right and left with solid economic planning, respect and include government employees, engage and involve the municipalities, be proactive on housing, health, education, and seniors issues, attract new industrial interests while maintaining and growing local small business. Ball will also be able to attract quality candidates including some of his leadership rivals. He is a quintessential Liberal.
This does not mean there will not be challenges over the coming 18 months. Ross Reid will try to direct a comeback for the Tories through outrageous spending, brainwashing levels of Tory self-promotion and advertising, and sometime in the New Year present a new potential leader. If the PC's cannot gain significantly by the next CRA poll result - the Tories will be in rebuild for 2019 mode.
Now let's talk about district predictions.
Here is my list of retirees (either before or at the dropping of the 2015 writ):
Felix Collins, Paul Davis, Kathy Dunderdale, Clayton Forsey, Tom Hedderson, Ray Hunter, Clyde Jackman, Charlene Johnson, Tom Marshall, Kevin O'Brien, Joan Shea, Susan Sullivan, Ross Wiseman.
Here is my list of potential floor crossers:
Dave Brazil, Sandy Collins, Tony Cornect, and Keith Russell
Those remaining may run again but only the following has a chance of retaining their seats:
Terry French, Keith Hutchings, Steve Kent, and John Dinn
This is what makes the next prediction very interesting.
I believe that Darin King thinks he is a leader in waiting and I believe that Hutchings and French will be his team of support. The problem is - I believe that - Darin King will lose his seat.
Dwight Ball has made it this far without the team of 10 establishment interests from both the Liberal and PC parties - if he keeps this approach - he will be a people's leader able to do the real job of a Premier.
As for the 2 independents - Mitchelmore and Kirby - I can see Kirby being comfortable under a Dwight Ball Liberal Opposition and Government - however Mitchelmore presents more as an opportunist who is a Tory one day and an NDPer the next. If he does not go Liberal he will - I predict - lose his seat.
Sunday, June 17, 2012
Training for 2015 Polympics has Begun - Dean/Danny/Brian
*Please note these are my PREDICTIONS - not statements of fact.
I believe the fix is in.
The circular Brian Danny Dean aka "the Three Amigos" rule is just about complete.
With this of course goes the development of major resources worth billions of dollars.
It's all about the Lower Churchill - in my opinion - it always has been.
Now there are little perks in between such as fibre-optic, land, and minerals - but the big daddy is the Lower Churchill development.
In my opinion the amigo's who all have vested strategic investments, board positions, and of course political connections (each other) are three Newfoundlanders and Labradorians who will enjoy the great reward from natural resource development.
Now that Kathy is nearing the end of her usefulness to the boys - the change is beginning.
Dean is out condemning everything Kathy does except of course - Muskrat Falls. Danny is keeping his nose out of everything - except of course - Muskrat Falls and Brian - well he has not weighed into the fray of what? - Muskrat Falls.
So they have begun - Kathy must still deliver on Muskrat Falls; however it will be a political life altering event which will see the population turn on her - while Dean praises the project.
The Liberals will put forth a farce of a convention - making sure that Dean gets a "fight" for the leadership - and upon his victory - Liberals will unite.
The current sitting members will carry on in the Dean/Danny/Brian government along with a few sitting PC's.
1. Although Ross Wiseman is very willing to cross the floor to advance himself - I think he's lining up for an appointment after he decides he's not running again. Maybe back to health care - hey Ross?
2. Tom Osborne is an interesting situation - he's genetically PC - not ideologically - but he's supposed to be Tory so he is. Well Kathy might put him back in Cabinet as he usually is a guaranteed seat - and in this way try and prevent the crossover - which I don't think he could make his legs do if he tried. I'm still waiting for him to nationalize the parks the Liberals privatized. In either case many things probably go against his grain and further he has been mistreated since the PC's took government - but he just doesn't have the courage. Some may call it loyalty - but nah - he is a social democrat and a fiscal liberal.
3. The "ladies" Charlene, Joan, and Susan are just plain gone. The Liberals even under Dean/Danny won't want them. They will go down with the already hole infested d(under)dale ship. They will not be re-elected and probably will be too fearful to run.
4. The people to look to for crossing are; David Brazil, Sandy Collins, Ray Hunter, Clyde Granter, Paul Lane, Tracey Perry, Jerome Kennedy, Derrick Dalley, John Dinn, Keith Russell, and Wade Verge.
5. Of those potential floor-crossers Darin King and Jerome Kennedy may first challenge for the PC leadership after the premature downfall of Dunderdale. They will be joined in the leadership circus by Kevin O'Brien, Steve Kent and Charlene Johnson. This will be a messy affair with King probably winning out. I think he has the most work done on the run-up.
6. Kevin O'Brien and Charlene Johnson will not run again for the Tories upon the loss and Jerome Kennedy - who could either quit in a huff - or find some useful engagement under the leadership of Dean MacDonald.
7. Darin King, Steve Kent, Tom Osborne, Keith Hutchings, Kevin Parsons, and Terry French will be the Tories who will run again under the PC banner and IF elected become the rat pack for the Tory Opposition.
8. I believe Paul Davis, Clayton Forsey, Glen Little, Glenn Littlejohn, Tom Marshall, Felix Collins, Eli Cross, Dan Crummell, Nick McGrath, Calvin Peach, Ray Hunter (if he does not cross), Tony Cornect, Kevin Pollard, Tom Hedderson, and Ross Wiseman will all choose to bow out of politics or lose their seat.
9. Of those who may look to cross Dean/Danny/Brian will dismiss Sandy Collins, Paul Lane, Tracey Perry, Wade Verge and Dave Brazil (if he doesn't cross within 1 year).
10. Let the games begin - not to worry though - anything that the amigos might be up to will be protected by Bill 29 - which they will continue to protect if they achieve government.
Training for the 2015 Polympics has begun.
I believe the fix is in.
The circular Brian Danny Dean aka "the Three Amigos" rule is just about complete.
With this of course goes the development of major resources worth billions of dollars.
It's all about the Lower Churchill - in my opinion - it always has been.
Now there are little perks in between such as fibre-optic, land, and minerals - but the big daddy is the Lower Churchill development.
In my opinion the amigo's who all have vested strategic investments, board positions, and of course political connections (each other) are three Newfoundlanders and Labradorians who will enjoy the great reward from natural resource development.
Now that Kathy is nearing the end of her usefulness to the boys - the change is beginning.
Dean is out condemning everything Kathy does except of course - Muskrat Falls. Danny is keeping his nose out of everything - except of course - Muskrat Falls and Brian - well he has not weighed into the fray of what? - Muskrat Falls.
So they have begun - Kathy must still deliver on Muskrat Falls; however it will be a political life altering event which will see the population turn on her - while Dean praises the project.
The Liberals will put forth a farce of a convention - making sure that Dean gets a "fight" for the leadership - and upon his victory - Liberals will unite.
The current sitting members will carry on in the Dean/Danny/Brian government along with a few sitting PC's.
1. Although Ross Wiseman is very willing to cross the floor to advance himself - I think he's lining up for an appointment after he decides he's not running again. Maybe back to health care - hey Ross?
2. Tom Osborne is an interesting situation - he's genetically PC - not ideologically - but he's supposed to be Tory so he is. Well Kathy might put him back in Cabinet as he usually is a guaranteed seat - and in this way try and prevent the crossover - which I don't think he could make his legs do if he tried. I'm still waiting for him to nationalize the parks the Liberals privatized. In either case many things probably go against his grain and further he has been mistreated since the PC's took government - but he just doesn't have the courage. Some may call it loyalty - but nah - he is a social democrat and a fiscal liberal.
3. The "ladies" Charlene, Joan, and Susan are just plain gone. The Liberals even under Dean/Danny won't want them. They will go down with the already hole infested d(under)dale ship. They will not be re-elected and probably will be too fearful to run.
4. The people to look to for crossing are; David Brazil, Sandy Collins, Ray Hunter, Clyde Granter, Paul Lane, Tracey Perry, Jerome Kennedy, Derrick Dalley, John Dinn, Keith Russell, and Wade Verge.
5. Of those potential floor-crossers Darin King and Jerome Kennedy may first challenge for the PC leadership after the premature downfall of Dunderdale. They will be joined in the leadership circus by Kevin O'Brien, Steve Kent and Charlene Johnson. This will be a messy affair with King probably winning out. I think he has the most work done on the run-up.
6. Kevin O'Brien and Charlene Johnson will not run again for the Tories upon the loss and Jerome Kennedy - who could either quit in a huff - or find some useful engagement under the leadership of Dean MacDonald.
7. Darin King, Steve Kent, Tom Osborne, Keith Hutchings, Kevin Parsons, and Terry French will be the Tories who will run again under the PC banner and IF elected become the rat pack for the Tory Opposition.
8. I believe Paul Davis, Clayton Forsey, Glen Little, Glenn Littlejohn, Tom Marshall, Felix Collins, Eli Cross, Dan Crummell, Nick McGrath, Calvin Peach, Ray Hunter (if he does not cross), Tony Cornect, Kevin Pollard, Tom Hedderson, and Ross Wiseman will all choose to bow out of politics or lose their seat.
9. Of those who may look to cross Dean/Danny/Brian will dismiss Sandy Collins, Paul Lane, Tracey Perry, Wade Verge and Dave Brazil (if he doesn't cross within 1 year).
10. Let the games begin - not to worry though - anything that the amigos might be up to will be protected by Bill 29 - which they will continue to protect if they achieve government.
Training for the 2015 Polympics has begun.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)