The CRA Poll will be 2015 Result

The latest CRA poll - I believe - will end up representing the election result in 2015.

The Tories have come in the same as last poll when you allow for percentage of error.

The NDP have collapsed and those left of centre swing Liberal/NDP have moved back to their Liberal base.

This is all of course premised on the Liberal Opposition not doing anything so outrageous (as happened with the NDP) as to eliminate themselves. As I have posted before - Dwight Ball's style of leadership is build not burn bridges and his thoughtful approach to policy is inclusive and open not exclusive and secret.

Back to the numbers:

1. The Liberals 52% is representative of the 30% or so solid Liberal support. 15% recaptured from the left leaning Liberals who had parked themselves tentatively with the NDP and 7% of centre Tories who swing based on the mood of the electorate and the current leadership of the Liberal Party.

2. The Tories are currently sitting with their solid PC base and not much else.

3. The NDP are likely to drop a couple of more points yet as they return to their solid base only - with that support going to the Liberals.

4. The Tories have shown they are unable to spend their way out this time and despite exorbitant amounts of warm and fuzzy Muskrat advertising - the population is not convinced that this project is good for Newfoundland and Labrador.

5. There will be a couple of more points coming to the Liberals as the sports fan like undecided - go out and vote for the winning team.

The Liberals chose the best leader at the best time. Dwight Ball will reinvigorate the party, rebuild party coffers, gain business support, promote district association development, unite right and left with solid economic planning, respect and include government employees, engage and involve the municipalities, be proactive on housing, health, education, and seniors issues, attract new industrial interests while maintaining and growing local small business. Ball will also be able to attract quality candidates including some of his leadership rivals. He is a quintessential Liberal.

This does not mean there will not be challenges over the coming 18 months. Ross Reid will try to direct a comeback for the Tories through outrageous spending, brainwashing levels of Tory self-promotion and advertising, and sometime in the New Year present a new potential leader. If the PC's cannot gain significantly by the next CRA poll result - the Tories will be in rebuild for 2019 mode.

Now let's talk about district predictions.

Here is my list of retirees (either before or at the dropping of the 2015 writ):

Felix Collins, Paul Davis, Kathy Dunderdale, Clayton Forsey, Tom Hedderson, Ray Hunter, Clyde Jackman, Charlene Johnson, Tom Marshall, Kevin O'Brien, Joan Shea, Susan Sullivan, Ross Wiseman.

Here is my list of potential floor crossers:

Dave Brazil, Sandy Collins, Tony Cornect, and Keith Russell

Those remaining may run again but only the following has a chance of retaining their seats:

Terry French, Keith Hutchings, Steve Kent, and John Dinn

This is what makes the next prediction very interesting.

I believe that Darin King thinks he is a leader in waiting and I believe that Hutchings and French will be his team of support. The problem is - I believe that - Darin King will lose his seat.

Dwight Ball has made it this far without the team of 10 establishment interests from both the Liberal and PC parties - if he keeps this approach - he will be a people's leader able to do the real job of a Premier. 

As for the 2 independents - Mitchelmore and Kirby - I can see Kirby being comfortable under a Dwight Ball Liberal Opposition and Government - however Mitchelmore presents more as an opportunist who is a Tory one day and an NDPer the next. If he does not go Liberal he will - I predict - lose his seat.