Premier Dunderdale was faced with yet another bad polling result yesterday - in the latest quarterly CRA poll.
The polls are telling them that people do not support their government, it's direction, it's approach or her leadership.
The change in party support is virtually within the margin of error.
The Premier has decided that it has nothing to do with the policies or direction of government - rather it's how they brag about their achievements.
In this respect there are a few problems with the Dunderdale assessment.
1. Essentially it means the voting public must be stupid - we just don't get it. We are unable to see all the great things around us - unless of course the right marketing agency or personnel tell us in simpler - more understandable terms.
2. The Dunderdale government has spent untold fortunes advertising and a use of tremendous human resources to "message us".
3. The Dunderdale government has filled all social media and dominated talk shows to "message us".
4. The Premier feels that more fuzzy "home heating" like promotion may warm the cockles of our feeling cold Tory hearts.
5. Refusal to accept that certainly some - if not all - of the public dissatisfaction is because we do understand what they are doing.
We all should be very wary of what this government may do next. They may go on a spending spree filling our homes with flyers, surveys, and broadcast and print media advertising.
So - based on what the Premier said we should expect the following:
1. No change whatsoever in policy.
2. An elimination of participating in talk shows.
3. All members of the PC caucus will be off Twitter and Facebook.
4. Inundation of advertising and promotional material to brainwash us into seeing the light.
5. Re announcing funding initiatives 6 times over instead of 3.
The little (margin of error) bump in the polls is what she needed to satisfy her docile caucus and hang on to her job for another 3 months.
Her advisor (Ross Reid) must of helped to come up with an excuse for their continued failure in the polls. (communication)
The Premier's message to us is; what we've got here is a failure to communicate.
No - Warden Dunderdale - I will not get used to wearing the PC Chains of resource giveaways and failed policy - not to mention arrogance.
Showing posts with label don mills. Show all posts
Showing posts with label don mills. Show all posts
Thursday, December 05, 2013
Wednesday, December 04, 2013
The CRA Poll will be 2015 Result
The latest CRA poll - I believe - will end up representing the election result in 2015.
The Tories have come in the same as last poll when you allow for percentage of error.
The NDP have collapsed and those left of centre swing Liberal/NDP have moved back to their Liberal base.
This is all of course premised on the Liberal Opposition not doing anything so outrageous (as happened with the NDP) as to eliminate themselves. As I have posted before - Dwight Ball's style of leadership is build not burn bridges and his thoughtful approach to policy is inclusive and open not exclusive and secret.
Back to the numbers:
1. The Liberals 52% is representative of the 30% or so solid Liberal support. 15% recaptured from the left leaning Liberals who had parked themselves tentatively with the NDP and 7% of centre Tories who swing based on the mood of the electorate and the current leadership of the Liberal Party.
2. The Tories are currently sitting with their solid PC base and not much else.
3. The NDP are likely to drop a couple of more points yet as they return to their solid base only - with that support going to the Liberals.
4. The Tories have shown they are unable to spend their way out this time and despite exorbitant amounts of warm and fuzzy Muskrat advertising - the population is not convinced that this project is good for Newfoundland and Labrador.
5. There will be a couple of more points coming to the Liberals as the sports fan like undecided - go out and vote for the winning team.
The Liberals chose the best leader at the best time. Dwight Ball will reinvigorate the party, rebuild party coffers, gain business support, promote district association development, unite right and left with solid economic planning, respect and include government employees, engage and involve the municipalities, be proactive on housing, health, education, and seniors issues, attract new industrial interests while maintaining and growing local small business. Ball will also be able to attract quality candidates including some of his leadership rivals. He is a quintessential Liberal.
This does not mean there will not be challenges over the coming 18 months. Ross Reid will try to direct a comeback for the Tories through outrageous spending, brainwashing levels of Tory self-promotion and advertising, and sometime in the New Year present a new potential leader. If the PC's cannot gain significantly by the next CRA poll result - the Tories will be in rebuild for 2019 mode.
Now let's talk about district predictions.
Here is my list of retirees (either before or at the dropping of the 2015 writ):
Felix Collins, Paul Davis, Kathy Dunderdale, Clayton Forsey, Tom Hedderson, Ray Hunter, Clyde Jackman, Charlene Johnson, Tom Marshall, Kevin O'Brien, Joan Shea, Susan Sullivan, Ross Wiseman.
Here is my list of potential floor crossers:
Dave Brazil, Sandy Collins, Tony Cornect, and Keith Russell
Those remaining may run again but only the following has a chance of retaining their seats:
Terry French, Keith Hutchings, Steve Kent, and John Dinn
This is what makes the next prediction very interesting.
I believe that Darin King thinks he is a leader in waiting and I believe that Hutchings and French will be his team of support. The problem is - I believe that - Darin King will lose his seat.
Dwight Ball has made it this far without the team of 10 establishment interests from both the Liberal and PC parties - if he keeps this approach - he will be a people's leader able to do the real job of a Premier.
As for the 2 independents - Mitchelmore and Kirby - I can see Kirby being comfortable under a Dwight Ball Liberal Opposition and Government - however Mitchelmore presents more as an opportunist who is a Tory one day and an NDPer the next. If he does not go Liberal he will - I predict - lose his seat.
The Tories have come in the same as last poll when you allow for percentage of error.
The NDP have collapsed and those left of centre swing Liberal/NDP have moved back to their Liberal base.
This is all of course premised on the Liberal Opposition not doing anything so outrageous (as happened with the NDP) as to eliminate themselves. As I have posted before - Dwight Ball's style of leadership is build not burn bridges and his thoughtful approach to policy is inclusive and open not exclusive and secret.
Back to the numbers:
1. The Liberals 52% is representative of the 30% or so solid Liberal support. 15% recaptured from the left leaning Liberals who had parked themselves tentatively with the NDP and 7% of centre Tories who swing based on the mood of the electorate and the current leadership of the Liberal Party.
2. The Tories are currently sitting with their solid PC base and not much else.
3. The NDP are likely to drop a couple of more points yet as they return to their solid base only - with that support going to the Liberals.
4. The Tories have shown they are unable to spend their way out this time and despite exorbitant amounts of warm and fuzzy Muskrat advertising - the population is not convinced that this project is good for Newfoundland and Labrador.
5. There will be a couple of more points coming to the Liberals as the sports fan like undecided - go out and vote for the winning team.
The Liberals chose the best leader at the best time. Dwight Ball will reinvigorate the party, rebuild party coffers, gain business support, promote district association development, unite right and left with solid economic planning, respect and include government employees, engage and involve the municipalities, be proactive on housing, health, education, and seniors issues, attract new industrial interests while maintaining and growing local small business. Ball will also be able to attract quality candidates including some of his leadership rivals. He is a quintessential Liberal.
This does not mean there will not be challenges over the coming 18 months. Ross Reid will try to direct a comeback for the Tories through outrageous spending, brainwashing levels of Tory self-promotion and advertising, and sometime in the New Year present a new potential leader. If the PC's cannot gain significantly by the next CRA poll result - the Tories will be in rebuild for 2019 mode.
Now let's talk about district predictions.
Here is my list of retirees (either before or at the dropping of the 2015 writ):
Felix Collins, Paul Davis, Kathy Dunderdale, Clayton Forsey, Tom Hedderson, Ray Hunter, Clyde Jackman, Charlene Johnson, Tom Marshall, Kevin O'Brien, Joan Shea, Susan Sullivan, Ross Wiseman.
Here is my list of potential floor crossers:
Dave Brazil, Sandy Collins, Tony Cornect, and Keith Russell
Those remaining may run again but only the following has a chance of retaining their seats:
Terry French, Keith Hutchings, Steve Kent, and John Dinn
This is what makes the next prediction very interesting.
I believe that Darin King thinks he is a leader in waiting and I believe that Hutchings and French will be his team of support. The problem is - I believe that - Darin King will lose his seat.
Dwight Ball has made it this far without the team of 10 establishment interests from both the Liberal and PC parties - if he keeps this approach - he will be a people's leader able to do the real job of a Premier.
As for the 2 independents - Mitchelmore and Kirby - I can see Kirby being comfortable under a Dwight Ball Liberal Opposition and Government - however Mitchelmore presents more as an opportunist who is a Tory one day and an NDPer the next. If he does not go Liberal he will - I predict - lose his seat.
Tuesday, July 02, 2013
Bond (Ed) Bond hits the nail right on the head of Bennett
The Sir Robert Bond Papers seems to have best summed up what to expect from Cathy Bennett if she became leader of any political party.
In his "Politics of Fashion" post Mr. Hollett talks about pollster Don Mills and his chat with the Board of Trade. Please see the excerpt below or keep it all in context by reading the complete post HERE
"...The provincial government started focussing on things like the Lower Churchill, squeezing more hand-outs from the federal government, and spending beyond what the public treasury could support. One of the provincial Conservatives’ biggest supporters after was Don Mills. Right in line behind Mills was the St. John’s Board of Trade. They cheered as the provincial government increased spending by incredible amounts. As the government admitted starting in late 2009, what it was doing was what the public couldn’t afford. Neither Mills nor the Board of Trade said a peep about it.
None of this is surprising. The two go together. CRA is the only pollster the local elite accepts and the Board of Trade reflects the views of the highly clique-ish local establishment. Mills is on the Board of Trade’s agenda because he is fashionable, not because he is saying something provocative or even something the Board actually supports. They don’t. The Board actually supports unsustainable government spending because that’s what puts cash in its members pockets.." (emphasis added)
Mr. Hollett certainly does not hold anything back when talking about Mills or the Board of Trade and their support of unsustainable spending by government.
Mr. Hollett continues on by adding the following later in the post:
" The Board is like an arm of government. The Board is such a reflection of the official view of things that they won’t even give time at a luncheon for a representative of the Liberals or New Democrats to speak. That sort of thing would be commonplace anywhere else but not in Newfoundland and Labrador since 2003." (emphasis added)
Well Mr. Hollett - I could not have said it better myself - however it was not only the Board of Trade and Don Mills who remained quiet while spending soared. You failed to mention one other; Cathy Bennett as the President of the Board of Trade in 2007.
This seems to differ greatly from Hollett's earlier post on Bennett's candidacy where he says:
"Bennett could prove to be the catalyst for a major change on the local political landscape. She is a fresh face. She offers potential."
Hard to match "fresh face" and "potential" with Hollett's earlier description of the Board of Trade and Don Mills since 2003. Hard to match "an arm of government" with catalyst for change.
Many of us already believe that Ms. Bennett is an opportunist - but Mr. Hollett puts it so much more clearly.
In his "Politics of Fashion" post Mr. Hollett talks about pollster Don Mills and his chat with the Board of Trade. Please see the excerpt below or keep it all in context by reading the complete post HERE
"...The provincial government started focussing on things like the Lower Churchill, squeezing more hand-outs from the federal government, and spending beyond what the public treasury could support. One of the provincial Conservatives’ biggest supporters after was Don Mills. Right in line behind Mills was the St. John’s Board of Trade. They cheered as the provincial government increased spending by incredible amounts. As the government admitted starting in late 2009, what it was doing was what the public couldn’t afford. Neither Mills nor the Board of Trade said a peep about it.
None of this is surprising. The two go together. CRA is the only pollster the local elite accepts and the Board of Trade reflects the views of the highly clique-ish local establishment. Mills is on the Board of Trade’s agenda because he is fashionable, not because he is saying something provocative or even something the Board actually supports. They don’t. The Board actually supports unsustainable government spending because that’s what puts cash in its members pockets.." (emphasis added)
Mr. Hollett certainly does not hold anything back when talking about Mills or the Board of Trade and their support of unsustainable spending by government.
Mr. Hollett continues on by adding the following later in the post:
" The Board is like an arm of government. The Board is such a reflection of the official view of things that they won’t even give time at a luncheon for a representative of the Liberals or New Democrats to speak. That sort of thing would be commonplace anywhere else but not in Newfoundland and Labrador since 2003." (emphasis added)
Well Mr. Hollett - I could not have said it better myself - however it was not only the Board of Trade and Don Mills who remained quiet while spending soared. You failed to mention one other; Cathy Bennett as the President of the Board of Trade in 2007.
This seems to differ greatly from Hollett's earlier post on Bennett's candidacy where he says:
"Bennett could prove to be the catalyst for a major change on the local political landscape. She is a fresh face. She offers potential."
Hard to match "fresh face" and "potential" with Hollett's earlier description of the Board of Trade and Don Mills since 2003. Hard to match "an arm of government" with catalyst for change.
Many of us already believe that Ms. Bennett is an opportunist - but Mr. Hollett puts it so much more clearly.
Monday, June 10, 2013
Poll results demand a Referendum on Muskrat
So the polls are reflecting the REAL feelings on Muskrat Falls, deficits, cuts, social policy on health and education.
Jerome Kennedy is says "they are taking the poll seriously" - really?
Kennedy adds that they will stand by the decisions they have made on cuts and Muskrat Falls - really?
Kennedy, Dunderdale, and Co. reflected not long ago that the most recent election victory was a ringing endorsement of the Muskrat development deal. Despite the millions in brainwashing attempts and hiding results of earlier polls on the issue - they celebrated not long ago that a majority of Newfoundlanders and Labradorians finally agree with the deal. Really?
The poll results are low enough now that the Tories are not governing with any moral authority. The poll results are a reflection of people beginning to understand the Muskrat giveaway will cost their children, great grandchildren, and great-great grandchildren a fortune. The polls are a reflection of the peoples utter disgust with policy and laws of secrecy. The polls are a reflection that people despise the incompetence and false arrogance of this regime.
So Minister Kennedy is really saying to hell with the people - we will do as we want - when we want. The real strength of the backbench is now being displayed as they sit idly by - not really knowing what to do.
Minister Kennedy is acting as if - we - the people are opposing counsel and he will fight us with the best he's got. Unfortunately Minister - you don't have the right stuff - to win this battle. The Court of Public Opinion has spoken - you have lost the case. Appeal if you dare - my guess is - you will lose that also. When the Supreme Court of Public Opinion speaks - the precedent will be set. Dunderdale, Kennedy and Co. will probably achieve a feat of Mulroney proportions - they will have wiped out the PC Party in Newfoundland and Labrador. Perhaps Ross Wiseman can pull a Peter MacKay.
A conclusion should be made by the people that NOW is the time to stop this government from proceeding further with the Muskrat fiasco. Stop it now while only 10% has been spent. This project can be halted in its tracks and the only ones who''ll be crying are the 5 or 6 people/corporations that are actually going to make serious money on this sell-out.
We have not passed the point of no return on Muskrat - but the PC's have passed the point of no return with the people.
Try to be honourable ladies and gents and call a referendum on whether the project should proceed.
The stench which is SNC Lavalin is pleasantly perfumy when compared with the smell of sewer gas spewing from the decomposition from within.
There is no reason for any administration to continue a project like Muskrat when they have lost the confidence of the people. If the government continues with this now - it's not for the benefit of Newfoundlanders and Labradorians.
Jerome Kennedy is says "they are taking the poll seriously" - really?
Kennedy adds that they will stand by the decisions they have made on cuts and Muskrat Falls - really?
Kennedy, Dunderdale, and Co. reflected not long ago that the most recent election victory was a ringing endorsement of the Muskrat development deal. Despite the millions in brainwashing attempts and hiding results of earlier polls on the issue - they celebrated not long ago that a majority of Newfoundlanders and Labradorians finally agree with the deal. Really?
The poll results are low enough now that the Tories are not governing with any moral authority. The poll results are a reflection of people beginning to understand the Muskrat giveaway will cost their children, great grandchildren, and great-great grandchildren a fortune. The polls are a reflection of the peoples utter disgust with policy and laws of secrecy. The polls are a reflection that people despise the incompetence and false arrogance of this regime.
So Minister Kennedy is really saying to hell with the people - we will do as we want - when we want. The real strength of the backbench is now being displayed as they sit idly by - not really knowing what to do.
Minister Kennedy is acting as if - we - the people are opposing counsel and he will fight us with the best he's got. Unfortunately Minister - you don't have the right stuff - to win this battle. The Court of Public Opinion has spoken - you have lost the case. Appeal if you dare - my guess is - you will lose that also. When the Supreme Court of Public Opinion speaks - the precedent will be set. Dunderdale, Kennedy and Co. will probably achieve a feat of Mulroney proportions - they will have wiped out the PC Party in Newfoundland and Labrador. Perhaps Ross Wiseman can pull a Peter MacKay.
A conclusion should be made by the people that NOW is the time to stop this government from proceeding further with the Muskrat fiasco. Stop it now while only 10% has been spent. This project can be halted in its tracks and the only ones who''ll be crying are the 5 or 6 people/corporations that are actually going to make serious money on this sell-out.
We have not passed the point of no return on Muskrat - but the PC's have passed the point of no return with the people.
Try to be honourable ladies and gents and call a referendum on whether the project should proceed.
The stench which is SNC Lavalin is pleasantly perfumy when compared with the smell of sewer gas spewing from the decomposition from within.
There is no reason for any administration to continue a project like Muskrat when they have lost the confidence of the people. If the government continues with this now - it's not for the benefit of Newfoundlanders and Labradorians.
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