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Puerto Rico as you have all probably heard by now - is essentially bankrupt - on fiscal life support - in need of massive bailout. It is considered impoverished.

Newfoundland and Labrador on the other hand is designated as a "have province". That puts us ahead of the provinces collecting equalization.

 In the 2017-2018 year, the following provinces will receive equalization payments:

• Quebec ($11.081 billion)  (please note this amount) program designed to suit them.
• Manitoba ($1.820 billion)
• Nova Scotia ($1.779 billion)
• New Brunswick ($1.760 billion)
• Ontario ($1.424 billion)
• Prince Edward Island ($390 million)

Back to Puerto Rico

Outstanding debt: 70 billion
Population: 3.4 million
$20,588 per person 

Unemployment 10%

Newfoundland and Labrador
Outstanding debt: 13 billion
Population: 528,000 
$24,621 per person

Unemployment 15%

This does not include the 13 billion dollar boondoggle Muskrat.

Both Puerto Rico and Newfoundland and Labrador see migration to the continental parts of their countries - both permanently and for temporary work.

Puerto Rico and Newfoundland and Labrador are losing population.

Puerto Rico's aging demographics are much healthier than Newfoundland and Labrador's 

We must also consider that Newfoundland and Labrador receives as all provinces do - transfer payments for programs such as health and education not so much for Puerto Rico.


There is a three-pronged problem here.

The first is the understanding or lack thereof of the Equalization program. I have discussed this briefly in a previous post.

The second is that even the reasonable or equitable (to some degree) parts of equalization - leaves us essentially bankrupt because although we have the resources to generate tax, royalties, revenues - we have mismanaged the resources so badly that what equalization considers we should generate from resources - we don't actually generate from them. (oil revenues unfair part)

The third problem is the absolute ignorance deliberate or otherwise of our politicians - refusing to actually understand the mess we are in.

And these same people continue to permit spending on Muskrat Falls.

The people of Puerto Rico just like the people of Newfoundland and Labrador love where they live and want to stay. However both jurisdictions are likely to see significant migration to their respective "mainlands" simply to survive and thrive.

Note to Labradorians - my use of the word "mainland" does not refer to you. I recognize the difference.   



 

Tory Flip-Flop on long-term care

Budget 2015 is an embarrassment. It is an acknowledgement of abject failure in the running of provincial finances.

The Tories just love to remind people regularly about the past Liberal governments and point to this and that.

So for the next week or so I will blog on what the PC's said when in Opposition. It will of course be relevant to this years budget.

Budget 2003 Loyola Sullivan expressed this point of view:


Mr. Speaker, when the government brought down its election budget just two weeks ago, they justified quadrupling the deficit and increasing the Province's debt to well over $11 billion by saying they were only listening to the will of the people. 

In that same breath, the Minister of Finance said she plans to privatize the provision of long-term care in Corner Brook Mr. Speaker, the Romanow Commission into Canada's health care system recently reported that the overwhelming majority of Canadians do not want a private health care system. My question for the Premier is this: Why is it that his government is prepared to listen to the people in order to justify its election budget, but is not prepared to listen to the people when it comes to privatizing health care? Could it be that government is only interested in listening to the people when it suits their political agenda? (emphasis added)

Good question Minister Sullivan. Now let's see if we can get Steve Kent or the Premier to answer it.

Let's all remember that this current government has enjoyed a wealth of revenues from oil and minerals that previous governments did not have. Let's all remember the majority of that wealth came from deals made by the previous Liberal administration. 

This budget must be defeated.

Premier Davis is in denial or worse ...

Premier Paul Davis wants to know what the problem is. He wants to know why people are not supporting his government.

I think these musings by our Premier are misleading and I don't believe him.

He has to know by now that the electorate of Newfoundland and Labrador want an election. They want an election before the spring. If he does not know this - he is unfit to be Premier. Why? Any person watching and listening to anything political in our province over the past few months who does not recognize the people want to vote - is in denial or in a cave without electronics.

I believe Paul Davis and the entire Tory caucus know that - therefore the problem is denial (if not something worse) - not knowledge. Why deny? Well power and benefits affect some people in a way that hanging on by the fingernails is almost an involuntary behavior. Unfortunately - many of them are politicians.

Here are the problems Premier Davis:

1. The people want an election and you won't call one,

2. People are extremely worried about Muskrat Falls and you appear not to care,

3. People do not trust their energy/power system anymore and you keep sending out Smiley Martin,

4. The price of oil and your budgetary guesstimates,

5. Rural population/employment decimation,

6. Giveaway policy for our natural resources,

7. Everything is under review, reassessment and analysis,

8. We have liabilities where the amount of those liabilities are not known,

9. You continue to spend like drunken sailors with no clue how we will pay for it,

10. Your caucus and Cabinet are arrogant,

11. Bill 29,

12. Lay-offs and then rehiring (don't know what you're doing)

13. You get rid of family violence prevention court but contract PC connected lawyers,

14. Debt, deficit, unemployment, population loss and aging,

15. Patronage,

16. Extreme partisanship,

17. Loss of manufacturing and processing industries,

18. Appointment of unelected Minister,

19. Your attack on small local business,

20. Your continued attempt to blame the people for not understanding the good you do - instead of wondering whether the people just don't like your policies and decisions.

21. Allowing the federal government to erode their presence in our province,

22. Burton Winters enquiry,

23. Focusing on the Avalon economy instead of the entire province,

24. Continuing to pillage Labrador without growing Labrador

25. Lack of transparency and accountability.

This is a short list - and I'm sure many Newfoundlanders and Labradorians have more to add.

The only way to deal with this is call an election and put out your own platform - not just a continuation of the Williams platform. This also would demonstrate integrity instead of preservation of self (Party). Most importantly this would prove you are a man of your word - when you claimed - "I will listen to the people".

a Grim/m Fairytale? Cop-Boyscout-Lawyer

 Is this a grim/m Fairytale?

You decide.
 
Stretching another 4 years out of this tired government is difficult when one considers the polling trends.

The back room of the Newfoundland and Labrador PC's must be abuzz with plotting, scheming, and planning in an attempt to squeeze another term in office. There are many more resources they want to "develop".

So let's pretend we are in the room listening to the suggestions for extended office.

The first discussion probably would have been dragging the election date out - to compensate for Kathy's early departure. That damn law they might have said - and we put it there too - they might add.

The first plan therefore might have been to use whatever method possible to drag the term the full 4 years - giving them more time to attempt recovery in the polls.

The second discussion likely was who and what to blame the poor poll results on. Well we cannot blame it on Muskrat they may have mused and we can't currently blame the feds - so what then? The second plan could have been to blame it on communications - if all else fails it was her failure to communicate our message. Not policy - they could not blame it on policy.

The third discussion might have been - yah maybe not all policy but some stuff is bad. Bill 29 for example. That we can blame on Kathy and all we need to do is extend it out - buy some time - pretend we are listening. It won't stop Muskrat from proceeding but it will get their attention. So the third plan might have been Bill 29 - off to examination.

On to the fourth discussion - okay but what about leadership - we need a new face they may have suggested. Okay but we got to be careful here - don't want any radical change to our resource development policy. Protect Muskrat - Protect Muskrat - at all costs was probably suggested. So the fourth plan they might have concluded was to "con"vince somebody - totally non-political - a business person - somebody who looks professional - somebody who supports Muskrat. Further - we have to get somebody who can eventually win a seat - and we need a seat where somebody is leaving. Not as easy as we think - they might have uttered - how do we convince such a person. Fourth plan - Voila - Frank - but how do we convince Frank. And so it might have been done. He was convinced. Poor fellow though - he looked and acted like he was being dragged through the political streets of Damascus - under the Dannymon Empire.

Now to the fifth and they probably have agreed to plead it - how do we drag this on to extend the election? They might have suggested, alright we gotta get a few months out of Frank - let him get used to the people - don't swear him in right away. Then if we extend that long enough - perhaps Frank could leave at the last moment - if he does not work out and we can bring in the back-ups.

 Picture Evening Telegram - See my back? Job done?

So the plan perhaps became to drag out Frank as long as possible - then call a new leadership process when Frank quit. We have the back-ups and we can assign each of them some Cabinet support - well who do we get? Well Kent is always ready to cooperate - he's a social media animal - we can get some twitter, facebook, and web page support out of him. And best of all - we might be able to robo-call the VOCM question of the day - to get the results we want and we are sure VOCM will report.

Be Prepared - to Robo-call and Tweet

How about the diplomat? How about the fellow who likes Harper and loves Muskrat.

Yes the silvered hair guy who looks knowledgeable and even-keeled. Good Tory boy  comes from the right schools - has a stately name - and can speak circles around Kevin O'Brien. Surely they must have considered this.

Remember Me? I don't remember me!

So Ottenheimer it is they might have concluded.

Finally we need somebody in-between - almost like Goldilocks - you know the just right fellow. That is a task - not too much political baggage, looks good in a blue suit or uniform - able to speak coherently - has communication experience - family guy - PC district and is re-electable. Can we build a resume that highlights some areas but downplays either the lack of ability or lack of desire to lead? A fighter - that's what he is - on the side of good - almost like running Spiderman for election. Spin a web - fight crime - on the side of good - and be able to hide any underlying deficiencies. Yes that's him they all might have exclaimed at once. We got it! We got it! Paul Davis -  they all might have chimed together on the Atlantic Place escalator.

I'm the Good Guy. Is Muskrat Falls a societal crime?

They might have mused that with mini-me in control of the party wing

 - we can keep Danny out of the circus while quietly helping delegates to make up their mind - with the exception of Mount Pearl - who will send in the city scouts to support their boy/man Steve.

Okay - Okay - they probably gasped with some short-term relief - now we need a plan - we need to attract the people back into our fold. Alright - spend money - lots of it. Employ people to do whatever up there in Labrador. Keep the trades involved - the nurses happy - and take advantage of the BBQ circuit. Announce - re-announce - put fillers in pot holes near and far. Announce hospitals, schools, arenas, fire-trucks, pavement (a km. each), a new penitentiary, and Muskrat jobs. Now do this right where if we happen to lose we already got the Liberals committed to billions over the next decade and if we win - we can delay delay - study study. In this way we can put it all out another 4 years - if we win - or torture the Liberals to make good on the billions in commitments we made.

Win win win - now - let's get at it. Nothing better than buying them with their own debt - they might have convinced themselves.

A grim Fairytale or a grim Reality?

Minister Marshall is a Genius right?

Economic Update:

It's not as bad as we thought.

Projected deficit only half billion dollars.

Budgetary projections based on overestimating deficit and then re-estimating less of a deficit.

How about this Minister Marshall - look into your Muskrat Ball and project the following - based on your policies today:

In 20 years the debt will be ___
In 20 years the deficit will be ___
In 20 years the cost of residential power will be ___
In 20 years our population will be ___
In 20 years our unemployment rate will be ___
In 20 years the public pensions will be a) bankrupt b) underfunded c) healthy
In 20 years the percentage of our population over 65 will be ___
In 20 years how many more communities will be lost ___
In 20 years the fishery will be controlled by ___  people
In 20 years we will have ___ paper mills
In 20 years we will have ___ communities in Labrador still without power from Labrador hydro resources
In 20 years will we have an oil or gas refinery - using our own resources?
In 20 years will it be determined that you and the PC Dunderdale Government have done more to advance Nova Scotia than for Newfoundland and Labrador? 
In 20 years will we have a shipyard?

There are no consequences to you if you are wrong - but the consequences to the next three generations can be profound.

I watch you and your colleagues banter and play in the House of Assembly like you are having a private poker game - playing with your own money. I watch the partisan tripe and manipulation of facts. I watch you and your colleagues answer from script and ignore the real situation. It looks like a game of monopoly wherein the consequences are a bruised ego - not the failure of a province.

I watch the backbenchers do whatever is necessary to get a crack at a Cabinet post. A giant carrot wielded by the Premier to keep herself in power.

When you were elected to govern in 2003 - do you believe that all governments that came before you did a great job? Did Tory governments before you leave us in a better place? Guess not - you continue to complain about it today. They were all telling the truth like you - right? They were all doing what was in our best interest like you - right? They were all building a bright future like you - right? Or do you believe that you and your colleagues have been the only competent, unselfish, and successful public servants?

The problem is Minister Marshall - if you - the Premier and the other PC's think you have the market on brains and integrity cornered - you are doing us a disservice and you should really pack it in and move on.

This situation becomes worse when you continue to be the only potential to even carry the portfolio (based on Premier's appointments) - what does that say about your colleagues?