YES NC Trudeau

By now most Canadians are asking what happened between former Justice Minister and Attorney General Jody Wilson-Raybould (JWR), the Prime Minister, the PMO and SNC Lavalin.

After watching and reading many different news stories, commentaries/opinions, social media discourse, legal filings, banking information, global conventions, and documents of the World Bank - I am prepared to put together a maybe.

The following represents my thoughts, speculations, and opinions based on what really seems plausible to me.

Please note that not all the statements below are facts - rather a group of facts and hypothesis based on what we know and don't.

SNC Lavalin is experiencing difficulties primarily do to their self-made legal troubles. I do not believe losing the Canadian marketplace is where they are most worried (easy for government to get around that).

The companies urgent concerns are anywhere where the World Bank is backing developments wherein SNC is likely and able to bid for work.

I believe it's possible that JWR - the former Justice Minister was chosen by Trudeau and strategists for that Cabinet post for 2 reasons.  The first is to enhance and display their branding - indigenous woman holding a top portfolio - the second they estimated that JWR was malleable to execute a saving agreement for SNC Lavalin. I find the first reason insulting as I do not believe it was sincere - just part of a large scale marketing plan and the second was one of the the greatest miscalculations of a person and their integrity, intelligence, and backbone I have ever seen.

SNC Lavalin knew what they needed long ago. They pegged the Liberals for delivery and worked their back-room magic for insurance.

They "lobbied" that is to say they prettied up influence to make an attempt at a legal process to direct their reward.

They did not want - they needed - very desperately for the bribery and fraud allegations and charges to disappear.

They could not suffer an additional blow to their already trashed reputation at the World Bank.

The Liberals did the first thing that was necessary and that was to change the Criminal Code. They did so under a Budget Bill. That was more due to urgency than it was anything else. If it had gone through a proper process - a process expected when one proposes to change the Criminal Code it would likely have been too late for SNC Lavalin.

Once the Budget Bill passed - the rush was on to get SNC Lavalin the fix they needed.

They needed a Remediation Agreement (RA) applied to the company.

No doubt SNC Lavalin went through the motions of "lobbying" while who knows what other methods of communication to get this process moving.

The prosecutor was not budging - so the deed was passed to JWR.

One can guess that this whole compromise deal was raised in Cabinet and probably the majority of Cabinet agreed to the proposed fix for the company. Unlike other Cabinet Posts the Department of Justice and the Attorney General must be independent. It's only proper. It was then no doubt that JWR started to feel the pressure. It may have come from a combined effort applied by Cabinet colleagues and the PMO.

It may have been at this point that JWR started to put it all together and began to wonder what was truly her "role" in the Trudeau administration.

She started to smell a rat and felt that she must do what was expected or she would end up under a political bus.

At that time she probably did want reassurance from the man who had praised her so highly and made a very compelling public case for equality in the Cabinet. Surely this man - who had embraced her and praised her skills and intelligence would provide some assurance that making - what she felt was the right decision - would be welcome by this Prime Minister.

Whatever happened at the meeting and the tone of which words were spoken will only be known when JWR speaks.

Trudeau however had his answer and it was not what he or SNC wanted to hear. No deal!

It could have been real tidy, a Minister that played her role - for the sake of saving Quebec enterprise. Gazetted by Minister JWR and in the event of a backlash (spin did not work on the SNC file) she could have been sacrificed while the rest stayed "clean". No deal!

That presented a unique and difficult situation for the Liberals and their buddies. Now what?

Well if he hauled her out of the portfolio it may very well be seen as pandering to SNC and firing her for not doing what they expected she would.

BMO and other banks and their investment divisions certainly are affected  by the potential outcomes of a potential SNC Lavalin failure or takeover.

This part is a bit trickier because I have mixed thoughts on whether Scott Brison knew or not - regarding a needed Cabinet Shuffle. BMO might have offered him what is a very lucrative and prestigious position at a time when Brison may have wanted a change for more than one reason. They all might have played him like a fiddle or he might have taken one for the larger corporate/political team (so to speak) as the cushion he landed on was quite soft.

Trudeau said it perfectly today - if Brison had not resigned JWR would have remained and still be the Minister of Justice and AG. Reread above - yes we can assume that just throwing her out on her own without another reason for a shuffle would have been too obvious.

Regardless of why Brison took the leap - he did and this gave the PM an opportunity to shuffle. The shuffle was ridiculous and clearly a demotion for JWR. That is part of the Liberal's incompetent attempt at covering.

The PM then appointed a person who could certainly be seen to enjoy towing the line and getting done what JWR would not.

The new Minister and AG did a poor job of playing it coy and generally delivered an amateur attempt at being a master "politician" - at a time when the Liberals needed one most.

JWR stayed in Cabinet and probably learned that SNC would be taken care of - so to speak.

Between that and the mixed, confused, and inconsistent messaging attempts of Trudeau and his overrated cast of cohorts - JWR decided it was time to pull out.

One thing remains if Trudeau can be taken at his word - being she would have remained as Minister of Justice had Brison not resigned - then certainly we can assume that the decisions she made re: SNC would be continued and would have been acceptable (not). This is what makes the whole thing ridiculous, unbelievable, and and likely the reason the Liberals may be defeated.

Then again - I am of the belief that SNC will be saved at the cost of losing government if necessary. All those who deliver would certainly expect to land as softly as let's say Scott Brison.

As Trudeau likes to say we are working for the middle class and those trying to join the middle class - just like his loyal backbench is working hard to join the Cabinet.

They might just want to pause and really think about what their actual role is.

Everything you have read above makes coincidence unlikely but political/corporate collusion more than likely.

One last note - remember this:
On December 17, 1997, Canada signed the Convention on Combating Bribery in International Business Transactions of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD Convention). In 1998 Parliament passed the Corruption of Foreign Public Officials Act (CFPOA) to implement Canada’s obligations under the OECD Convention into Canadian law.
The OECD Convention aims to stop the flow of bribes and to remove bribery as a non-tariff barrier to trade, producing a level playing field in international business.  The OECD Convention came into force on February 15, 1999, following Canada’s ratification. To date, 44 states have ratified the OECD Convention, including the 36 member states of the OECD and eight non-member states: Argentina, Brazil, Bulgaria, Colombia, Costa Rica, Peru, Russia and South Africa.
In June 2013 Parliament amended the CFPOA to increase the maximum penalty for convicted individuals, to create a new books and records offence and to expand jurisdiction based on nationality.  In addition, the 2013 amendment stated that at a later date the Government would eliminate the exception for facilitation payments. Facilitation payments are those made to foreign public officials to secure or expedite the performance of acts of a routine nature that are within the scope of the official's duties. The repeal came into force on October 31, 2017 and such payments are now included under the foreign bribery offences listed in the CFPOA.


and now in 2018 The Trudeau government did this:
In September 2018, a Remediation Agreement (RA) regime came into force through the creation of a new Part (Part XXII.1) of the Criminal Code. An RA is a new tool available for use by prosecutorial authorities – at their discretion, in the public interest and in appropriate circumstances – to address corporate criminal wrongdoing. It is an agreement, between an organization accused of committing a listed offence and a prosecutor, to stay any proceedings related to that offence, if the organization complies with the terms of the agreement.


Perhaps it's time the World Bank amended its position to ignore such weakening of commitment to cleaning up the global market by not recognizing such RA's.  

and there is this last little bit: (emphasis added for easier read)


The Honourable Kevin G. Lynch, P.C., O.C., PH. D, LL.D
Vice-Chair, BMO Financial Group
The Honourable Kevin Lynch has been Vice Chairman of BMO Financial Group since 2010. Prior to that, he was a distinguished former public servant with 33 years of service with the Government of Canada, serving as Clerk of the Privy Council, Secretary to the Cabinet, Deputy Minister of Finance, Deputy Minister of Industry, as well as Executive Director for Canada at the International Monetary Fund.
Kevin is Chancellor of the University of King’s College, a senior Fellow of Massey College and the past Chair of the Board of Governors of the University of Waterloo. He chairs the Board of SNC Lavalin and is a director of CN Railway and CNOOC Ltd (China National Overseas Oil Company). As well, Kevin is a Trustee of the Killam Trusts and a Director of Communitech, the Governor General’s Rideau Hall Foundation and the Asia Pacific Foundation of Canada. Previously, Kevin served on the boards of the Ditchley Foundation of Canada (Chair), the Accounting Standards Oversight Council (ASOC), the Ontario Rhodes Scholarship Selection Committee, the Princess Margaret Hospital Foundation, the Gairdner Foundation, the Perimeter Institute, the Bank of Canada, Empire (Sobeys), Canadian Deposit Insurance Corporation (CDIC), the Business Development Bank of Canada (BDC), BMO China and the Cape Breton Development Corporation.

Come on now.... Really?  Yes Canada they really do believe we are stupid.... but they also underestimated Jody Wilson-Raybould...

Manning - face and eyes into new job...

The unelected Minister - Judy Manning - is face and eyes into her new portfolio. See!

Out on the campaign trail drumming up votes for somebody else as she sits on her unelected throne.

Churning up the activity - on family violence court, WHSCC reviews, and generally preparing new legislation.

Seen here leafing through the voluminous material and briefing notes with her Cabinet colleague?

Pounding the pavement for justice and getting up to speed on her appointed Ministry?

Posing again above with Departmental literature? Enjoying a stroll while explaining to the good people of CBS why they should elect a PC MHA.

Why they must ask? Why not appoint somebody from the district right on into Cabinet and then hold a by-election. Hardly seems fair that Placentia - St. Mary's has 2 representatives. One donated by the Premier - the other elected but not in the mood to sit in Cabinet.

I suppose this could be be on-the-job political training.

Maybe Ms. Manning should have done as her uncle Fabs did. Run - don't get elected and get reappointed. Win - Win

The people of CBS must be at least a little annoyed that this person is being shoved in their faces in the middle of a democratic process.

Manning playing gender card

If Judy Manning is trying to impress the public with her skills - she is failing.

To date we have a "superior work ethic" that has been alleged by the Premier but not proven.

We have "extensive legal experience" that has not been backed up by demonstrated work.

Now Ms. Manning is playing the gender card. That is not a card that one should use so cavalierly. There are real situations where women are discriminated against - this is not one of them.

She is a lawyer - yet she is doing her profession a disservice if what she calls responsible public scrutiny - "character assassination". There is zero evidence that this is the case.What has been reported has been accurate and if that information causes Ms. Manning to believe that she is seen in an unfavourable light - then she should take time and reflect herself.

The latest interview with Ms. Manning by David Cochrane highlights what appears to be a pattern for the unelected Minister. According to the CBC On Point story - Ms. Manning contends "that she was surprised by the focus of the interview, thinking it would be about general delays in the system and not her role as review commissioner." However the story goes on to say: the Oct. 24 email from CBC asking for the interview stated this: “I am working on a story about Minister Manning's previous role with the Workplace Health, Safety and Compensation Review Division (WHSCRD). My specific areas of inquiry are the number of cases she handled in that role, the number of reports she filed, and what happens to cases she did not complete.”

Then there is this quote in the story: “Did I break the system in the three months that I heard hearings? No. I have great empathy for the people that are going through this process, and I understand the frustration that’s emerged with the delays, but am I the author of those delays? Absolutely not”

Notwithstanding Ms. Manning's misrepresentation of the focus of the interview - she goes on to say she has great empathy for the people going through the process. Empathy defined as the feeling that you understand and share another person's experiences and emotions : the ability to share someone else's feelings. This itself is questionable as it was Ms. Manning who walked away from the files to take an unelected position in the Davis Cabinet. It was Ms. Manning's resignation from the WHSCRD that has caused the delay for these people.

Here we are today - and Ms.Manning is going to haul out the gender card and seek empathy for herself from women who truly face discrimination in the workplace. The questions that are asked of Ms. Manning is appropriate scrutiny of any person who is an unelected Minister. It is unusual for Ministers to be unelected and as such these exceptional circumstances require exceptional scrutiny - replacing what would normally be electoral scrutiny. Further as Ms.Manning refuses to run in any of the three by-elections called or anticipated - she demonstrates a sense of entitlement and arrogance - hardly a just comparison with the injured workers left to wait for decisions on basic human needs.

I now have to look at why Ms. Manning has chosen to throw out an unsubstantiated claim of possible gender discrimination. My take is that Ms. Manning may be playing the card now in an effort to thwart off what will be a continued and justified volley of criticism in the House of Assembly - as Question Period proceeds without her. Perhaps Ms. Manning is putting it out there so people will relate probing in the House of Assembly as the Opposition members - picking on a woman.

None of Ms. Manning's protestations to date are becoming of a Minister of Justice and Attorney General - it has nothing to do with being a woman.

It is time for Ms. Manning to resign - or in the alternative run in one of the three upcoming by-elections.

Perhaps the greatest criticism of the Manning appointment should fall at the desk of Premier Paul Davis. Ms. Manning was chosen by Mr. Davis - to date he has not successfully justified his choice - his call - his decision. 

Minister Judy Manning must be replaced

Here we go again.

CBC has completed some research with respect to Ms. Manning's experience and background.

This person is supposed to be our Attorney General and Minister of Justice.

Sorry she does not cut it. Please remove her from the position.

Evidence for such a move as follows:

The CBC reported and asked Ms. Manning about the information below

According to the provincial government, Manning was assigned 19 cases and held hearings for all of them, but did not file any decisions before her resignation.

Now, the family of one of those injured workers is complaining about delays in his case — an appeal for a wheelchair-accessible vehicle — saying they have had no contact from anyone about what will happen now.

Ms. Manning's response was

But Manning is defending her role at the WHSCRD, saying commissioners routinely miss the legislated 60-day deadline for decisions.

It is absolutely unacceptable - unprofessional - and perhaps worse... The Attorney General of our province justifies breaking the laws of our province by advising that others routinely do.

This is not acceptable from any Commissioner but from the Attorney General? This does not evoke any sense of confidence in our Department of Justice - in fact it does the opposite.

The Minister goes on to say

"I'm entirely comfortable with how I've discharged my duties as a review commissioner and certainly to date I'm entirely comfortable with the energy and the enthusiasm that I've brought to this position,” she said.
“And I'm looking forward to continuing to execute in a similar manner."

Let's get this straight - our Minister of Justice is entirely comfortable with not finishing files she is responsible for - not concerned about breaking the law - connects enthusiasm with quitting and not finishing files and then advises Newfoundlanders and Labradorians that she plans to do the same with this job?

Will she commit to quitting in 5 months?

The CBC story is filled with more of these remarkable and troubling statements.

Why not we call a spade a spade and recognize that Ms. Manning in not even close to being ready to be Minister of Justice or Attorney General.

Great piece of journalism Rob Antle - giving us the information we need to make decisions - without drawing the conclusions for us.

Davis - putting lipstick on a pig?

As the bogeyman can be either gender - the use of the word should not cause sexist issues. Now as our new "unelected" Attorney General raised the topic of fear - I should not be accused of being nasty.

Judy Manning believes that criticism of her appointment is coming from the Opposition Parties as they are "threatened by the Progressive Conservative Government". Telegram story HERE

I would "with respect" reword that to read the electorate is threatened by the Progressive Conservative Government.

Threatened by the mounting debt,

Threatened by the unfunded pension liabilities,

Threatened by the Muskrat Falls project and escalating energy costs,

Threatened by scandal such as the Humber Valley Paving Contract,

Threatened by the erosion of democratic conventions,

Threatened by the level of patronage that continues,

Threatened by the continued loss of industry,

Threatened by our population statistics,

Threatened by the loss of the Justice Department,

Threatened by an "unelected" Attorney General who makes decisions based on her emotions (my heart is in the Placentia - St.Mary's District so I can't run anywhere else)

Threatened by the continued loss of rural communities, and

Threatened by the arrogance and disrespect this government has toward the people of the province.

If the whole idea of Ms. Manning's appointment was to frighten the Opposition - then I guess they are relying on the introduction of a bogeyman to frighten the critics into better behaviour.

Considering Ms. Manning brought up the topic of threatened let's look at why the PC's are making "innovative" changes to our democracy. Paul Davis is going to be different - see - look what he did. He plucked a well-connected Tory unelected out of a sole practitioner law office and threw her into a new Department of Public Safety. Furthermore - just to be different our "unelected" Premier chose somebody who was afraid to run in any of the by-elections. Then - just to be different he accepted the resignation of one Minister (who he would have fired anyway) and left another Minister named in the HVP report right where he was. Additionally - just to be different - he found that Labrador was without a Minister so - he plucked arguably the most controversial and bad-tempered off the backbench and presented him to the electorate as a changed man. Lastly he wanted to up the number of women in government - so he ignored an elected woman and went out and found one that he thought was more worthy of a Cabinet post?

One can only reasonably believe that Davis made such outrageous choices in a desperate attempt to put lipstick on a pig. Or if you prefer -You can't make a silk purse from a sow's ear. The end product is the same.

How about we outline why the PC government feels threatened:

1. The polls,

2. The by-election losses,

3. The defections or resignations of key Cabinet and caucus people,

4. The acrimonious mess of a failed first leadership race,

5. The divisive actions of Deputy Premier Steve Kent during the second leadership contest,

6. The very loud criticism from Progressive Conservatives,

7. The weak backbench (as evidenced by the "unelected" Premier's recent Cabinet shuffle),

8. Continued failure to communicate or continued failure of decisions,

9. The numbers of people showing up to vote for Liberal nominations in Tory districts, and

10. The growing voice of the people demanding both an election and a judicial inquiry on HVP.

Please just call an election - so we can sort this out. Let's see who the people want and don't want. 

Felix Collins - on his own terms?

Last evening came news that Felix Collins refused the Cabinet post of Attorney General. The unelected person who took his place is conveniently a Manning from the Cape Shore. Her "heart" is preventing her from seeking election in the upcoming three by-elections and on that basis we the people of Newfoundland and Labrador have to suffer an unelected Minister.

If Felix Collins - elected by the people of Placentia - St. Mary's, is unwilling to serve in the Cabinet at the Premier's pleasure - then he should clearly resign. The people of his district deserve a member who is willing to step to the Cabinet table when asked.

So Felix what are you up to? Do you live in the district anymore? Why are you sitting around in caucus for what's left of this term - when you clearly have no real interest in governing.

Now because the PC's are so cute with words sometimes - this question must be asked for clarification. Did Paul Davis ask you to become Attorney General only if you agreed to run in the next election? Is that why you said no?

So Judy Manning - the Manning insert - seemed to have as little problem justifying the unjustifiable as Fabs did when he sat with Harper as he nailed Newfoundland and Labrador.

Paul Davis appears to be shoring up a chosen candidates in a very unique way. Let's start you off in Cabinet and then tell the people of Placentia - St. Mary's that this is who you need to please me - the Premier.

Paul Davis and company seem to believe the people of the district are less than astute. The Premier thinks it's okay for a member from the area to turn down a Cabinet post and just sit there until he decides to call an election.

Felix - are you willing to be used in such a fashion? I think you owe the people of Placentia - St. Mary's more that that. Resign your seat and release Manning from her "heart" felt dilemma.

I hear there's polling going on in the district. If that's favourable - I guess your boss will tell you when to go. I recommend you leave on your terms - with a bit of integrity and show some respect to the people who provided you such a rare opportunity to serve.

Davis arrests democracy and cuffs the electorate

It is certainly clear that I for one expect a judicial inquiry into the HVP affair and I will be posting something dedicated to that stench ridden file in the near future.

Today - however - I will deal with the immediate display of arrogance coming from our newly minted "unelected" Premier.

I tweeted my suspicions a week or so ago - that I expected Davis might go outside the caucus and appoint an "unelected" Cabinet member. Davis has not let me down - and by that I mean I am not disappointed with the predictable actions of an "unelected" Premier with born again arrogance in the ministry that is politics for this PC lot.

Steve Kent - in fine predictable form - becomes the Deputy Premier - as a direct result of his play in the leadership convention. Pre-printed scarves - an unwelcome sermon from the convention podium - and a feeling of self importance has placed Kent right where he wanted to be. Nothing to do with us - just to do with the "ambitions" of a former and long-tenured Constable who decided to hire his former boss to run his shop.

Then comes the bombshell - of such magnitude - that the Richter scale rumble from the Auditor Generals report - grew a little stronger and more dangerous to our democracy.

We awake today with an Attorney General and Minister of Public Safety who is unelected.

The Premier's release calls Judy Manning a "newcomer". A newcomer to what? This person is unelected and therefore has no place in our Cabinet and is not permitted to sit and be questioned in the House of Assembly. The Department of Justice is no more and is now the Department for Public Safety? What a mess we are in.

The instant word on the street is that the Attorney General must be a lawyer. Let's take that at face value and agree( I do not). Felix Collins is a lawyer and the member for Placentia - St. Mary's. He is apparently staying until the next election. Therefore - if Paul Davis wants a lawyer for Attorney General he has one. Further Manning is apparently going to seek the nomination for Placentia - St. Mary's and if successful run in the next election. Well should Ms. Manning win the nomination and go on to win the seat and if the PC's win the election - then she could be considered for Cabinet. This play with the electorate of Placentia - St. Mary's is complete with arrogance on behalf of the Premier and a blatant disrespect for the people of the district and the province. Additionally Ms. Manning should run in one of the upcoming by-elections - unless she too already feels entitled. And considering Paul Davis believes that 300 or so people can make him a legitimate Premier - perhaps he should have chosen John Ottenheimer as Attorney General - at least somebody voted for him.

Davis is flexing his power and we are being tasered for wanting to keep our democracy in tact. This driving ambition suits Davis like it suits a repeat offender finding God.

Recidivism - apparently - should not be reserved for re-offenders - but rather extended to a former police officer extending his new found power.

This is a slap in the face for the electorate and a demonstration of how Paul Davis plans to govern. The promise to hold early elections in the event a Premier resigns early will be ignored. The promise to listen to people - has already been shattered in a million pieces as Davis goes outside the electorate's choice of MHA's and appoints his own Minister. Paul Davis will keep his commitment to transparency by ignoring the stench of the undocumented information regarding the Humber Valley Paving scandal?

It seems the fellow who headed up Child Youth and Family Services - children died while under care of the Department and then the fellow who headed up Transportation and Works in the middle of the ill-fated HVP contract - is just going to carry on as if he is fully entitled.

This is not the making of a people's leader - this is the making of a zealot who has gained power. Short-lived - I predict.

Paul Davis should have gone to government house this morning and asked that the writ be dropped. He clearly does not have the confidence that people - the electorate will give him the power - that he instead has been handed by a few hundred Tories.

Paul Davis has arrested democracy and cuffed the electorate.