PIRA Projections? - Muskrat Nightmare?

The company that supplied Nalcor and the government of Newfoundland and Labrador with projected oil costs has a new focus:

PIRA Energy Group held a seminar that I hope our province attended - before sanctioning the debt elephant and the Muskrat Falls inferior development plan.

It's time for our politicians to stop ignoring or downplaying the shale play in North America. The price of oil - which our reports on Muskrat rely so heavily on - may be taking an absolute turn downward. If this were to happen then our estimates are dead wrong - our export ability is dead, our price for domestic power would be too high, and the debt carried by taxpayers and monies paid by ratepayers would be unacceptable.

This type of error would compare to our failure to recognize the value of hydro - as oil prices soared. Now the opposite may happen - and we need to fully examine this possibility. Just as our mistake in the late 60's has netted Quebec a windfall - this project has the same potential to make multimillionaires of a few while hanging an albatross around the neck of Newfoundland and Labrador for an equivalent number of generations.

Please Read HERE

How about the government show us the latest PIRA report to them on projected oil prices. Where is the new report?

Also please advise if the formula used for projections to determine price of oil for our Hebron equity is the same as that being used for Muskrat.

We need to do more than be force fed fuzzy commercials, dazzled with hotel announcements, and reassured by MHA's who clearly do not have all the information. We need to stop this deal now - have the works go to the Public Utilities Board - which in turn would have complete authority to call any and all witnesses, check the primary data and estimates of Nalcor, and review the energy marketplace for the next 30 years.

We need to be cognizant of the fact that the project estimates have increased by over a billion dollars - which the government says is because of improved engineering and infrastructure plans.

Let's take them at their word. Why were the plans deficient to begin with if we have the BEST experts doing them? If the people, opposition, and media did not complain loudly about the first MHI, Navigant, and Joint Panel Review findings - would the government have proceeded with less than acceptable infrastructure?

If the increased costs are largely due to improper costing - then how do we expect to achieve a 10% maximum on over-runs?

There may very well be a project that works for the Lower Churchill - a domestic project/s that could see partnership between energy intense secondary processing industries and Newfoundland and Labrador Hydro - where transmission costs and energy loss could be minimized by using the power in Labrador. This of course does not include "johnny come lately" panic for Muskrat power when the Emera deal for Nova Scotia power may be in jeopardy and the potential export sales non-existent. We need to start from scratch and determine what is the best project/s for the Lower Churchill resource and proceed from there.

The television commercials and media buy to sell us something we have no say in - is throwing money for roads, hospitals, schools, and health down the drain.

If the government really wants the people to support the project - then send it to the experts we pay to determine the real costs, risks, and options for domestic supply IF and when we may need it.

This project has all the potential of being a second Upper Churchill nightmare - wherein WE make a mistake again.

We keep hearing that could not happen because of all the experts we have. Well how did it happen with the Upper Churchill?

How did the Newfoundland and Labrador Hydro experts get it wrong on privatization?

How did experts with Newfoundland and Labrador Hydro make so many errors in predicting power shortages over the past 30 years?

If and when the Lower Churchill is developed business will make money on the construction, engineering, and management of the project. We cannot just do a project to make business happy now by filling their coffers with contracts - that we have no ability to pay without extreme hardship to our people.

While we are at it - have a look at the mess in Nova Scotia regarding this deal and potential partnership and ask yourself is Emera in this? Are we guaranteed that Emera is in this?

 Please read Here and look at the comments from Nova Scotians. 

We are not yet in a position to sanction this deal and the people must step up and force the government to retreat from this fiasco.