There are 2 issues which may break the Conservative government and remove them from office, come next election.
The first is equalization (fiscal imbalance) and the second is climate change (Kyoto).
The balancing act that Harper will have to perform has been made more difficult by his own promises during the last election (those based on ideology) and the reality (now based on driving ambition to retain power).
Fiscal Imbalance
This is a sticky one for the PM as he has placed his conservative neck on the line. As I met with him one on one - I noted his determination to deliver policy based on his own economic principles and up-bringing. His education and his Western Canadian oil thinking - coupled with his memories of the National Energy Program - combined to form a singular train of thought. Non-renewable resource revenues must be removed from equalization.
His thoughts on the matter are simple - non-renewables should maintain value for future generations that have no opportunity to use resources we exhaust now. That fundamental value of Harper's dictates that he must not allow federal claw-back of revenues which should go to building infrastructure and investments that will allow our children and theirs to benefit from oil and gas fields and mines which are being utilized - here and now.
There is no doubt this thinking is solid and makes perfect sense - it will also allow a few provinces that currently recieve equalization to be contributors in the future. One of which is Newfoundland and Labrador - another Saskatchewan. It virtually guarantees that British Columbia, Ontario, and Alberta will not need subsidization.
Saskatchewan, British Columbia, Ontario, and Newfoundland and Labrador are very interested and supportive of that concept - while Alberta is more interested in keeping itself out of a ten province formula - effectively increasing equalization for recipient provinces.
Harper's promise during the last election was clear - he would remove non-renewable resource revenues from the formula.
In a letter to Premier Danny Williams before the last election Stephen Harper said this:
"Much of the tension that has arisen between the federal and provincial governments over the last decade is a result of the fiscal imbalance. Paul Martin's government denies the fiscal imblance exists despite the fact the provinces are struggling to deliver essential services such as health and education while the federal government accumulates surpluses. I don't think this is fair and I don't think this is right. A Conservative government is committed to bringing balance to the fiscal relationship between the federal and provincial governments.
A Conservative government would also support changes to the equalization program to ensure provinces and territories have the opportunity to develop their economies and sustain important core social services. We will remove non-renewable natural resource revenue from the equalization formula to encourage the development of economic growth in the non-renewable resource sectors across Canada. The Conservative government will ensure that no province is adversely affected from changes to the equalization formula."
(emphasis added)
This statement is clear and must be lived up to if Stephen expects or deserves to get another vote from British Columbia, Alberta, Saskatchewan, Ontario, and Newfoundland and Labrador.
The PM however ran into trouble the minute he talked about this commitment. Quebec will only go along with this if they can have renewable resources (hydro-electric) removed as well. The argument that province provides is that they contribute more to reducing greenhouse gases than anybody else (of course they include Churchill Falls) - therefore it must be rewarded in the same fashion - and also encourage the continued development of clean energy.
Hence we have ended up with a turmoil. Now Stephen if he is genuinely sincere - at least as sincere as he is to lowering the debt - would have to stick to his principles and tell Quebec that other means must be found to reward Quebec for clean energy - but that non-renewables are the only items to be removed from the formula.
I supported Stephen Harper in the last election for a number of reasons:
1. Removing non-renewables
2. Presence in Goose Bay
3. Return of complete weather services to Gander
4. Custodial Management of the nose and tail of the Grand Banks and Flemish Cap
5. I believed the Liberals needed a time-out
6. Support for the Lower Churchill as a partner under the Lower Churchill Development Act,
7. They would form a minority - thereby curtailing the conservative social extreme wing, and
8. Reduction of political expediency in favour of real democratic principles (including respect for the electorate).
The election happened and as I publicly predicted the Conservatives formed a minority where the percentage of seats coming out of the Atlantic, Prairie, and Western Provinces was greater than that of Central Canada. This should have given the new minority administration the strength to move forward to correct the centralization of government and equal representation to neglected regions of the country.
Unfortunately - Stephen got too much attention from Quebec - they are politically brilliant and they knew what was coming so they gave him some seats. Enough seats to leave the new PM drooling for more. So what does he do?
He grabs an MP from BC and dumps him in Cabinet - only problem is he was elected as a Liberal, he takes a Quebecker who was not elected and dumps him in the Senate and Cabinet over long-time conservatives such as Jason Kenny, and then he ignored PEI by not grabbing up an unelected conservative to represent the entire Province.
In between election night and the appointment of Cabinet - the man was hijacked, kidnapped, shaken down, and reformed until every principle was removed - and he became a Central Canadian. In other words he is a jelly-fish without a backbone starving for power and willing to do anything to stay in power.
So much for promises!
Custodial Management - gone
non-renewables - in question
Gander - unsure if all services will be returned and then dumped the Gander airport
Labrador - unsure of when the new division will show up - that takes time
no support yet on the Churchill
less support on the oil developments
right wing social agenda ( with Quebec economic Agenda)
and removal entirely of democratic reform and respect for the electorate.
Then our Minister Loyola Hearn gets on open-line and calls his critics - armchair philosophers. Can't wait to get out of the armchair next election my laddo - your mother taught you better and there is some lye soap to wash your mouth out with.
Climate Change and Kyoto
This will prove to be another downer for Stephen come election day. Mr. oil country Boy has never supported Kyoto and believes there is a better way - which he has promised to figure out and deliver. Only problem is Quebec is not standing for that!
Want to see what happens when Quebec disagrees on Kyoto? Read This
So now Rona ( the disappearing Minister of Environment) cocks her head to one side and mutters something about having to impact the oil and gas sectors. This should go over well in the Texan-Amercian province of Klein - Alberta. In either case he has no wiggle room here as he tries to walk on the glass particles placed under his feet by Canada (Ontario and Quebec).
You see Stephen has a mess. He has been dumping billions into agriculture under Super Minister Strahl since the election to try and save the prairie and western vote - but Alberta just may cause him to slip and bleed votes throughout that province.
If you have been watching the Francaphonie Conference you would have seen Charest and Harper danicng all over the floor of the international forum as Quebec now has it's own seat at such events. You think Loyola we could get the same on fisheries conventions?
In conclusion the PM lies - his Ministers lie and anything and everything will be done to keep power - and unfortunately his guts have just been removed by Central Canadian spin doctors who do not have the skill needed to ensure the patient survives.
What of Atlantic Canada? MacKay will get lots of money and prestige to hold Nova Scotia and Loyola - well Loyola will allow himself to be used in whatever manner his boss see fits - and he will be duty-bound to take his position as a lowly Newfoundland and Labrador MP without as much as a whimper - other than to yell at the people who elected him.
After a quick glance at the recent billion dollar cut fiesta - we know that we always come first in one regard - the quickest and easist chop on the block.
No comments:
Post a Comment